Frank wrote on Nov 7
th, 2024 at 2:15pm:
Your assumption is that
1. Americans will continue to buy Chinese rubbish even with 60% higher prices
2. Offshore American companies will prefer to pay the 60% extra, pass it on to their customers and stay offshore rather than return to America and avoid the tariff hike.
Trump has indicated he plans to implement new tariffs on Chinese goods if he is re-elected, starting on his first day back in office.
His proposed tariffs include an aggressive 60% rate on Chinese imports, which he argues will help revitalize American industries by reducing dependency on foreign manufacturing.
Trump is also considering a broad 10% tariff on all imports, aiming to encourage U.S. businesses to source products domestically.
The issue here is that you're assuming the U.S. will have the manufacturing capacity to replace all of China's output from day one of his presidency.
Are you truly suggesting that’s feasible?
It's simply unrealistic, and this miscalculation would force consumers to bear the cost of tariffs with no alternative.
Sure, it's one thing to protect domestic industries by first nurturing their growth, then implementing tariffs once local production is competitive and subsidies expire. But to introduce tariffs without any preparatory steps, essentially from day one, means that Americans would have no choice but to pay inflated prices.
Please tell me you recognise the flaw in this logic?
I’m willing to concede that despite much of what he's said at his rallies, he likely didn’t mean to start this on day one, which would be giving him more credit than he perhaps deserves. It would imply that he’s given serious thought to both the implications and mechanics of tariffs. But for the sake of argument, let’s assume he didn't mean day one.
Now, let’s consider: will Republicans support subsidies to build domestic manufacturing to rival China?
We saw how challenging it was for Biden to get the CHIPS and Science Act through Congress. Only a small group of Republicans supported it, with the majority firmly opposed. So, do you seriously believe the GOP will back substantial government funding for such industries?
Do you support government intervention to build up these industries before any tariffs are imposed?
Because let’s be clear, that approach is a little "socialist," isn’t it? The very same label thrown at Obamacare for its government-led framework.
Is that acceptable now?
And if not, how do tariffs not completely stuff over working Americans?
Let's not get bogged down on 'day one'.
Chinese trade practices are dishonest. Many, many countries have pointed this out over the years. Europeans also impose tariffs on goods with some glaringly unfair / dishonest Chinese cheating.
Most Chinese industry has developed on the back of Western investment and Western companies shifting to China. China has exploited this, added masive industrial espionage and intellectual property theft and now has, due to thise dishonest practices, a massive trade surplus it uses to usurp Western and especially American global power and influence.
Very significantly, the rustbelts of the West suffered from shifting production to to China, a.k.a. 'globalisation'. The price the people of these rustbelt paid for globalisation has been too high - one reason they voted for Trump in droves.
Tariffs are a way to counter the CCP hoof on the trade scale.
Other dishonest practices will be countered with tariffs on Mexico, too. If they do not stop the tide of illegals pouring through Mexico, Trump will impose big punitive tariffs on Mexican goods. Has construction of a huge Chinese electric car manufacturing plant been put on hold in Mexico? Yes. Will Mexico do a lot more to stop the flow of ilkegals through its territory. Yes.
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