SadKangaroo wrote on Nov 7
th, 2024 at 4:20pm:
Frank wrote on Nov 7
th, 2024 at 3:31pm:
Let's not get bogged down on 'day one'.
I've already extended him that courtesy.
Quote:Chinese trade practices are dishonest. Many, many countries have pointed this out over the years. Europeans also impose tariffs on goods with some glaringly unfair / dishonest Chinese cheating.
Most Chinese industry has developed on the back of Western investment and Western companies shifting to China. China has exploited this, added masive industrial espionage and intellectual property theft and now has, due to thise dishonest practices, a massive trade surplus it uses to usurp Western and especially American global power and influence.
Very significantly, the rustbelts of the West suffered from shifting production to to China, a.k.a. 'globalisation'. The price the people of these rustbelt paid for globalisation has been too high - one reason they voted for Trump in droves.
Tariffs are a way to counter the CCP hoof on the trade scale.
Other dishonest practices will be countered with tariffs on Mexico, too. If they do not stop the tide of illegals pouring through Mexico, Trump will impose big punitive tariffs on Mexican goods. Has construction of a huge Chinese electric car manufacturing plant been put on hold in Mexico? Yes. Will Mexico do a lot more to stop the flow of ilkegals through its territory. Yes.
So you're just going to ignore the rest?
To your original points,
Frank wrote on Nov 7
th, 2024 at 2:15pm:
Your assumption is that
1. Americans will continue to buy Chinese rubbish even with 60% higher prices
2. Offshore American companies will prefer to pay the 60% extra, pass it on to their customers and stay offshore rather than return to America and avoid the tariff hike.
1. You're not addressing the lack of local options to purchase instead of the imported products. They're being forced to pay unless Trump rebuilds manufacturing beforehand, which would be fantastic, but he'll have his entire party to fight against to do it, good luck.
2. The offshore companies don't pay them. It's the local importer does as the products pass through customs.
The biggest issue is, and the one relevant to your original point which you seem to be trying to abandon, Trump will need to rebuild the local manufacturing sector and have them building the same products as China, otherwise Americans will be FORCED to pay the tariffs.
He seems to think all he needs to do is put the tariffs in place and the rest just magically happens.
If he does that, everything I've predicted will likely come to pass.
Trump wants to bring back American industry to America so American companies employ Americans, not Chinese, pay tax in America, not China, keep American know-how in America, not give away to China.
America is nowhere near as far gone in obliterating its own manufacturing ability as Australia. The other thing is: how much OTHER benefit comes from paying a bit more to have American jobs in America, paying tax and supporting families and communities in America.
Edited: If he does that, everything I've predicted will likely come to pass.
I am very sanguine about that, considering your record of accurate predictions
in the last few years about Trump and America in particular, and Australia and the world in general.
He's given no hint, other than tariffs on how he plans to achieve that.
If he does the same thing as last time, the same thing will happen...
Again, just because you reject the parts of his first term you don't like, doesn't mean it didn't happen.
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