Australian Politics Forum - Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.

goosecat

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Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:06pm

This was PM'd to me on another site. Not saying I agree or disagree but it has value IMHO.

Trumps Summarised USA Economic Policy Foundational Basis

"Higher energy production = lower energy prices = lower production costs = new production incentives = more manufacturing = more jobs

Reduced regulation allows US manufacturing to compete with China which has zero regulation.

The one thing people keep missing about his tariff plan is the plan to give a 6% corporate tax cut to those who manufacture in the United States. His plan is literally the same as a Border Adjustment Tax, but unlike a BAT, it also rewards companies that service the domestic economy exclusively.

The reason why China dominates world wide manufacturing is because after 1970, the value of the RMB went from 1.2 RMB to the USD to around 8 RMB in the 1990s and was pegged to the USD in 1997 before being released to a range of 6-7 RMB to USD. It should be valued at around half that, which is why Trump wants to introduce a tariff.

This is why the Steel Belt became the Rust Belt, and why Trump is now President. That's what 'Make America Great Again' means to voters in those swing states. In the 1960s, the United States was responsible for 50% of the world's entire manufacturing output. From 1970 to 2024, it's declined to 18% as China has risen. But this isn't Thucydides' Trap - this was a willful destruction of the United States by globalists who hated the prospect of a nation that powerful not being beholden to financial debt. 1971 was the first year that the US had posted a trade deficit in the 20th century, and other than 1973 and 1975, it hasn't posted a surplus since."

Also, about selectively applying tariffs - Australia was the only country that didn't have a tariff put on its steel exports to the United States under the last Trump term. Why? Because we are one of the few countries that had a trade deficit with them.

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« Last Edit: Nov 9^th, 2024 at 8:43pm by goosecat »

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Dnarever

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #1 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:27pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:06pm:

This was PM'd to me on another site. Not saying I agree or disagree but it has value IMHO.

Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis

"Higher energy production = lower energy prices = lower production costs = new production incentives = more manufacturing = more jobs

Reduced regulation allows US manufacturing to compete with China which has zero regulation.

The one thing people keep missing about his tariff plan is the plan to give a 6% corporate tax cut to those who manufacture in the United States. His plan is literally the same as a Border Adjustment Tax, but unlike a BAT, it also rewards companies that service the domestic economy exclusively.

The reason why China dominates world wide manufacturing is because after 1970, the value of the RMB went from 1.2 RMB to the USD to around 8 RMB in the 1990s and was pegged to the USD in 1997 before being released to a range of 6-7 RMB to USD. It should be valued at around half that, which is why Trump wants to introduce a tariff.

This is why the Steel Belt became the Rust Belt, and why Trump is now President. That's what 'Make America Great Again' means to voters in those swing states. In the 1960s, the United States was responsible for 50% of the world's entire manufacturing output. From 1970 to 2024, it's declined to 18% as China has risen. But this isn't Thucydides' Trap - this was a willful destruction of the United States by globalists who hated the prospect of a nation that powerful not being beholden to financial debt. 1971 was the first year that the US had posted a trade deficit in the 20th century, and other than 1973 and 1975, it hasn't posted a surplus since."

Also, about selectively applying tariffs - Australia was the only country that didn't have a tariff put on its steel exports to the United States under the last Trump term. Why? Because we are one of the few countries that had a trade deficit with them.

Quote:

"Higher energy production = lower energy prices = lower production costs = new production incentives = more manufacturing = more jobs"

Current US energy production is at a record high

Most of the rest of this argument is actually being undermined by Trumps policies.

Quote:

Reduced regulation allows US manufacturing to compete with China which has zero regulation.

Reduced regulation most often results in reduced safety and increased profits without competition or improvment.

Quote:

the plan to give a 6% corporate tax cut to those who manufacture in the United States.

At the same time he has a plan to deport the only people available to work in these manufacturing plants. No point in creating new jobs when there is an extreme labor shortage.

High labor demand drives higher wages - higher production prices - higher power prices - undermines incentives - lower employment.

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« Last Edit: Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:33pm by Dnarever »

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goosecat

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #2 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:41pm

I'm going to take both Trump and Rubio's words on immigration.
The violent criminal, illegal immigrants will be targetted first. They need to be found, deported and would be a net negative to the USA community and economy.
The non violent criminal illegals will be allowed to re apply LEGALLY. Or in Trumps words; "We need to bring them back legally".

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Karnal

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #3 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:55pm

The US is a service economy. The analysis expressed here is totally outdated.

Manufacturing makes up only a small proportion of US output. There is no reason to believe that turning this around would make Americans better or happier. Manufacturing is largely automated anyway, so it's not like there are all these great production line jobs going.

America makes smart technology, patents and IT. The big money's in Silicon Valley, not Detroit.

The DRILL BABY DRILL thing's krap. Cars and households don't have to rely on oil and fossil fuels anymore. Even wars are being fought largely with drones now. The whole idea of requiring oil and heavy manufacturing for defence is outdated too.

Increasingly, national defence is more about processing capacity - hence the Chips Act. Nations are more at risk from attacks on IT.

Not sure why you'd want to attract manufacturing back from a country like Mexico, only to need cheap labour from a country like Mexico to staff it. US business and political leaders have been aiming to improve America's standard of education for the past two generations. As a service-oriented smart economy, the US needs a college-educated workforce, not an army of factory workers.

The so-called foundational basis is way off here. It misses another fundamental need - cheap, sustainable energy. And another: increasing bandwidth. These two things will power an economy increasingly integrated with AI.

The US isn't returning to a post-war economy any time soon, which is what this model is based on.

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« Last Edit: Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:25pm by Karnal »

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goosecat Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 619	Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis. Reply #4 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:59pm Karnal wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:55pm: The US is a service economy. The analysis expressed here is totally outdated. LOL. No poo. Nothing in the summary disagrees with that lol. Can you read?
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Dnarever

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #5 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:00pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:41pm:

I'm going to take both Trump and Rubio's words on immigration.
The violent criminal, illegal immigrants will be targetted first. They need to be found, deported and would be a net negative to the USA community and economy.
The non violent criminal illegals will be allowed to re apply LEGALLY. Or in Trumps words; "We need to bring them back legally".

Quote:

The violent criminal, illegal immigrants will be targetted first.

These immigrants have a crime rate under 20% the national average. They are the most law abiding citizens in the US. You are a victim of the election hype, not the truth.

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goosecat Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 619	Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis. Reply #6 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:01pm LOL. Not even worth replying to
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Dnarever

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #7 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:01pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:41pm:

I'm going to take both Trump and Rubio's words on immigration.
The violent criminal, illegal immigrants will be targetted first. They need to be found, deported and would be a net negative to the USA community and economy.
The non violent criminal illegals will be allowed to re apply LEGALLY. Or in Trumps words; "We need to bring them back legally".

Quote:

"We need to bring them back legally".

Would that be after the recession that it causes?

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Dnarever

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #8 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:02pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:41pm:

I'm going to take both Trump and Rubio's words on immigration.
The violent criminal, illegal immigrants will be targetted first. They need to be found, deported and would be a net negative to the USA community and economy.
The non violent criminal illegals will be allowed to re apply LEGALLY. Or in Trumps words; "We need to bring them back legally".

Quote:

take both Trump and Rubio's words

And there's your problem.

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goosecat Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 619	Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis. Reply #9 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:13pm Quote: take both Trump and Rubio's words And there's your problem. [/quote] Nah I don't buy the rhetoric thrown around by radical leftists. I'm pretty central on most things generally. I can see some soundness to the idea of deporting "non beneficial" and keeping "beneficial".
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Dnarever

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #10 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:18pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:13pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:02pm:

Quote:

take both Trump and Rubio's words

And there's your problem.

Nah I don't buy the rhetoric thrown around by radical leftists. I'm pretty central on most things generally.
I can see some soundness to the idea of deporting "non beneficial" and keeping "beneficial".

I suspect you will be disappointed in the outcome here.

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Karnal

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #11 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:21pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:59pm:

Karnal wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 6:55pm:

The US is a service economy. The analysis expressed here is totally outdated.

LOL. No poo.
Nothing in the summary disagrees with that lol.
Can you read?

Oh I see. So when you said not saying I agree or disagree, you meant you agree with your DL absolutely and without question.

Good to know, dear, good to know.

It might help if you have a squiz at your summary again, and question its "foundational basis".

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goosecat Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 619	Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis. Reply #12 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:38pm Again, you completely miss it. The summary states he wants more manufacturing, can you understand that? In no way does that counter your statement, the USA is a service economy now. In fact the two notions support each other. It should be understandable to even a primary school student.
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Dnarever

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economy Foundational Basis.
Reply #13 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 8:57pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 9^th, 2024 at 7:38pm:

Again, you completely miss it.
The summary states he wants more manufacturing, can you understand that?
In no way does that counter your statement, the USA is a service economy now.
In fact the two notions support each other.
It should be understandable to even a primary school student.

Quote:

he wants more manufacturing

He likely wanted to be a good President in his first term as well, sometimes what you want is beyond the person. The dynamics say that this is beyond Trump.

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goosecat

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #14 - Nov 9^th, 2024 at 9:05pm

Possibly, remember the majority of the USA feels he actually did an alright job the first time.
That may not align with legacy media narrative or you own bias but that is the reality.
Nonetheless he is the elected USA President and he has economic goals.
Hopefully he gained some knowledge and is even better prepared the second time around.

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« Last Edit: Nov 9^th, 2024 at 9:10pm by goosecat »

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