Australian Politics Forum - Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.

Karnal

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #60 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 4:03pm

Goose, you really need to read up on micro economics, dear.

The Chinese government doesn't send goods to America. Americans go on Amazon and eBay to buy them.

Chinese-made components are built into the US supply chain, with everyone from US auto manufacturers to builders importing them.

The CCP doesn't swarm the world with products. The rest of the world seeks them out, orders them and pays Chinese businesses to send them over.

Take your DL. He's in the hat business, no? Before he can sell them and make a profit, he calls up a factory in Guangzhou, puts in an order and pays them in Yuan. The Chows them send them over to Palm Beach: nice red caps with MAGA in white letters. They throw in a few black ones for Elon - dark MAGA.

Same with his gold sneakers, same with his 14 karat gold watches: made in Chi-na.

China's not forcing them on your DL or setting the price. Your DL is going online, shopping for Chinese products and buying them to sell to suckers in America.

So, no. The Chinese government is not going to cut prices to factor in your DL's taxes. The Chinese government doesn't have anything to do with the sale of goods at all.

All the Chinese government can do in response is impose retaliatory tariffs on US-made goods, and this is how trade wars start.

During your DL's last trade war, he ended up paying all the money collected through tariffs straight back to American farmers as compensation for the loss of sales to China. US consumers paid those tariffs, and the farmers let their unsold crops rot in the fields.

Not the best way to do business, wouldn't you say?

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« Last Edit: Nov 10^th, 2024 at 4:15pm by Karnal »

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goosecat

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #61 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 4:27pm

You're really not worth answering, so I won't bother with this for long.
Saying "The Chinese government doesn't have anything to do with the sale of goods at all" is so imbecilic, it says all one needs to know really regarding your actual knowledge as opposed to that which you think you have lol.
Aside from that only an idiot chasing a debate for the sake of the site usage appearance perhaps would argue that China exporters would never lower prices initially to cover. At the minimum they will have an amount of existing stock and pipeline orders to move.

When some-one says China will initially lower prices, trying to straw-man and say they meant just the government will lower prices is so juvenile, I have little time for pathetic, lower class, debaters that employ the tactic. I'm not going to waste my time on pathetic straw-man idiots.
That may be the realms of many on this site, but I can't be bothered with the low-brow time-wasting.

Intelligent people understand "China" will initially lower some prices to USA. They will most certainly also respond with other tactics, including their own tariffs as I said; "China's fightback".

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« Last Edit: Nov 10^th, 2024 at 4:37pm by goosecat »

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Karnal

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #62 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 5:08pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 4:27pm:

You're really not worth answering, so I won't bother with this for long.
Saying "The Chinese government doesn't have anything to do with the sale of goods at all" is so imbecilic, it says all one needs to know really regarding your actual knowledge as opposed to that which you think you have lol.
Aside from that only an idiot chasing a debate for the sake of the site usage appearance perhaps would argue that China exporters would never lower prices initially to cover. At the minimum they will have an amount of existing stock and pipeline orders to move.

When some-one says China will initially lower prices, trying to straw-man and say they meant just the government will lower prices is so juvenile, I have little time for pathetic, lower class, debaters that employ the tactic. I'm not going to waste my time on pathetic straw-man idiots.
That may be the realms of many on this site, but I can't be bothered with the low-brow time-wasting.

Intelligent people understand "China" will initially lower some prices to USA. They will most certainly also respond with other tactics, including their own tariffs as I said; "China's fightback".

No worries, so what do you mean? This is a discussion board. We flesh things out.

Are you saying DL's hat-manufacturers should sell them to him cheaper than cost? Are you saying the Chows should cut worker's wages? Are you saying the CCP should cut the Yuan even lower to make the price of MAGA caps cheaper?

What? You seem to be assuming everything but the most logical response: DL will pass the additional tariffs onto his base.

I imagine they'll happily pay an extra $10 for a well-made MAGA cap.

Wages are currently at record highs, no?

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goosecat

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #63 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 5:22pm

It will be a combination as always.
Some importers will try to pass the full cost on and for some items that will work. For others the public wont buy as much at the price etc. Some importers will "wear" some of the cost. Some will source elsewhere. Some will demand China suppliers/exporters lower cost to the US importers to cover and some will be combinations of all etc.
An element of China to USA products will initially have to lower prices to USA importers to move existing stock and pipeline. Exactly how much and how many products, I suspect no-one actually knows, including "economists".
It will of course have flow on effects for China production pipelines, (businesses, workers, financial institutions) and economy.

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« Last Edit: Nov 10^th, 2024 at 5:34pm by goosecat »

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Karnal

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #64 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 6:25pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 5:22pm:

It will be a combination as always.
Some importers will try to pass the full cost on and for some items that will work. For others the public wont buy as much at the price etc. Some importers will "wear" some of the cost. Some will source elsewhere. Some will demand China suppliers/exporters lower cost to the US importers to cover and some will be combinations of all etc.
An element of China to USA products will initially have to lower prices to USA importers to move existing stock and pipeline. Exactly how much and how many products, I suspect no-one actually knows, including "economists".
It will of course have flow on effects for China production pipelines, (businesses, workers, financial institutions) and economy.

I see. You're onto the importers. Now you're talking.

Oh, economists know alright. They're saying it'll add to inflation. A 20% tax doesn't just disappear, Goose. You don't get to "demand" your way out of it.

When Australia enforced GST on foreign platforms like eBay and Amazon, prices automatically went up by 10%, just like that.

No bargaining, no price reductions, no demands on suppliers.

Tariffs are effectively a consumption tax.

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goosecat

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #65 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 7:45pm

Trump believes he can go the tariff route and still keep inflation under control.

He points to bringing in the tariffs he did in his first term which the "left" and economists screamed about initially and then went on to keep during Biden/Hariss term.
He says he'll cut insurance costs, deport millions initially, lower energy prices, lower taxes for business and remove tax on tips etc etc, as separate parts of his plans to purportedly counter any upward inflationary cost of living pressures of introduced tariffs.
There's certainly debate on whether he can actually manage all those achievements but he thinks he can.

It's not that he hasn't thought about it, he just thinks he can cover it and win/win for the USA against China.
Trump is not alone in his thinking regarding tariffs and China (Europe/Canada), but he does go broader and stronger.

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« Last Edit: Nov 10^th, 2024 at 8:11pm by goosecat »

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Frank

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #66 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 8:03pm

Karnal wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 6:25pm:

goosecat wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 5:22pm:

It will be a combination as always.
Some importers will try to pass the full cost on and for some items that will work. For others the public wont buy as much at the price etc. Some importers will "wear" some of the cost. Some will source elsewhere. Some will demand China suppliers/exporters lower cost to the US importers to cover and some will be combinations of all etc.
An element of China to USA products will initially have to lower prices to USA importers to move existing stock and pipeline. Exactly how much and how many products, I suspect no-one actually knows, including "economists".
It will of course have flow on effects for China production pipelines, (businesses, workers, financial institutions) and economy.

I see. You're onto the importers. Now you're talking.

Oh, economists know alright. They're saying it'll add to inflation. A 20% tax doesn't just disappear, Goose. You don't get to "demand" your way out of it.

When Australia enforced GST on foreign platforms like eBay and Amazon, prices automatically went up by 10%, just like that.

No bargaining, no price reductions, no demands on suppliers.

Tariffs are effectively a consumption tax.

So consume the local alternative.

Buy your kids a job - remember that one?

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SadKangaroo

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #67 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 8:31pm

goosecat wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 2:56pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 1:19pm:

If Trump were to implement tariffs on all imports, it would increase the cost of imported goods, which could encourage people to buy domestically produced alternatives. However, whether there are viable local alternatives depends on the product and industry.

For some goods, especially agricultural products and basic manufactured items, local alternatives might be available or could be ramped up relatively quickly.

However, for more complex items like electronics, machinery, or specialized components, it would be challenging to find or establish equivalent local production in the short term. The U.S. has a significant manufacturing base, but certain industries rely heavily on global supply chains due to cost efficiencies, technological expertise, or raw material availability.

In the short to medium term, widespread tariffs will lead to higher prices and limited availability for certain products, as local producers would need time and investment to scale up or shift production.

The effectiveness of domestic substitutes would also depend on the ability of local industries to meet demand at a competitive quality and price.

Hence, if Trump doesn't FIRST fix the local manufacturing base, something that is deeply ideologically opposed by the Republican Party, champions of deregulation and "let the free market decide" in the short and medium term Americans will be forced to pay more for all the products they need either because all or part of them is produced overseas.

This is what you backed and what the people chose...

Only guessing but I suspect Trump is well aware there is going to be a gap in the timeline of increasing USA production enough to cover as many products as he would like and demand.

I suspect he hopes China will initially respond by having to lower prices into USA to cover. He is targeting them specifically more than any competitors. I suspect he hopes to achieve a 2 pronged attack on the China trade imbalance by reducing that imbalance and empowering to an extent, any China manufacturing competitors.

His idea of increasing USA manufacturing, is not in and of itself a bad idea. It requires a leader whom is prepared to enact long term supporting policies that may take more than one term to see the full desired gains in his specified area.
I doubt legacy media will even grasp that notion let alone promulgate it, but that is where the hysterical, radical, left misunderstand Trump. He genuinely thinks part of improving the USA economic position and citizen livelihood, includes broadening it's base to include more manufacturing.

I'm again guessing but I expect there will be an initial positive response to his policies from investment into the USA and already the markets seem to agree. That may be followed by a period of poorer performance as the "gap" between investment and actual production comes to the fore and China fight-back efforts have some effect. There followed by a period of better performance as some of the policies start to bare physical fruit.
I reckon Trump will accordingly see a 12 month honeymoon period, followed by a couple of tougher years, including an over-due market correction, before ending with a better performance towards the end of his term.
The legacy left wing media will focus on the tougher years of his term and Trump will focus on the "poo" in his opinion he was left by Biden/Hariss and the improving economic outlook towards the back end.
The media circus goes into the new election rhetoric media cycle and around we go.

That's my crystal ball guess. lol

I hope so, but Trump has historically been a lazy president. He's all about the signing ceremony and getting all the credit without actually following through, like the wall, his "fixing" the health system etc.

But I hope you're right.

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Dnarever

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #68 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 9:10pm

SadKangaroo wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 8:31pm:

goosecat wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 2:56pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 1:19pm:

If Trump were to implement tariffs on all imports, it would increase the cost of imported goods, which could encourage people to buy domestically produced alternatives. However, whether there are viable local alternatives depends on the product and industry.

For some goods, especially agricultural products and basic manufactured items, local alternatives might be available or could be ramped up relatively quickly.

However, for more complex items like electronics, machinery, or specialized components, it would be challenging to find or establish equivalent local production in the short term. The U.S. has a significant manufacturing base, but certain industries rely heavily on global supply chains due to cost efficiencies, technological expertise, or raw material availability.

In the short to medium term, widespread tariffs will lead to higher prices and limited availability for certain products, as local producers would need time and investment to scale up or shift production.

The effectiveness of domestic substitutes would also depend on the ability of local industries to meet demand at a competitive quality and price.

Hence, if Trump doesn't FIRST fix the local manufacturing base, something that is deeply ideologically opposed by the Republican Party, champions of deregulation and "let the free market decide" in the short and medium term Americans will be forced to pay more for all the products they need either because all or part of them is produced overseas.

This is what you backed and what the people chose...

Only guessing but I suspect Trump is well aware there is going to be a gap in the timeline of increasing USA production enough to cover as many products as he would like and demand.

I suspect he hopes China will initially respond by having to lower prices into USA to cover. He is targeting them specifically more than any competitors. I suspect he hopes to achieve a 2 pronged attack on the China trade imbalance by reducing that imbalance and empowering to an extent, any China manufacturing competitors.

His idea of increasing USA manufacturing, is not in and of itself a bad idea. It requires a leader whom is prepared to enact long term supporting policies that may take more than one term to see the full desired gains in his specified area.
I doubt legacy media will even grasp that notion let alone promulgate it, but that is where the hysterical, radical, left misunderstand Trump. He genuinely thinks part of improving the USA economic position and citizen livelihood, includes broadening it's base to include more manufacturing.

I'm again guessing but I expect there will be an initial positive response to his policies from investment into the USA and already the markets seem to agree. That may be followed by a period of poorer performance as the "gap" between investment and actual production comes to the fore and China fight-back efforts have some effect. There followed by a period of better performance as some of the policies start to bare physical fruit.
I reckon Trump will accordingly see a 12 month honeymoon period, followed by a couple of tougher years, including an over-due market correction, before ending with a better performance towards the end of his term.
The legacy left wing media will focus on the tougher years of his term and Trump will focus on the "poo" in his opinion he was left by Biden/Hariss and the improving economic outlook towards the back end.
The media circus goes into the new election rhetoric media cycle and around we go.

That's my crystal ball guess. lol

I hope so, but Trump has historically been a lazy president. He's all about the signing ceremony and getting all the credit without actually following through, like the wall, his "fixing" the health system etc.

But I hope you're right.

Trump makes the announcement and then heads out to the golf course.

The 2025 project removes the framework that gets things done. Replacing all the civil servants with political hacks will do the type of damage that takes decades to recover from.

The only bright light is that the departments will likely not be functional enough to enact Trump's policies.

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« Last Edit: Nov 10^th, 2024 at 9:15pm by Dnarever »

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aquascoot

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #69 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 9:20pm

Dnarever wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 9:10pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 8:31pm:

goosecat wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 2:56pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 1:19pm:

If Trump were to implement tariffs on all imports, it would increase the cost of imported goods, which could encourage people to buy domestically produced alternatives. However, whether there are viable local alternatives depends on the product and industry.

For some goods, especially agricultural products and basic manufactured items, local alternatives might be available or could be ramped up relatively quickly.

However, for more complex items like electronics, machinery, or specialized components, it would be challenging to find or establish equivalent local production in the short term. The U.S. has a significant manufacturing base, but certain industries rely heavily on global supply chains due to cost efficiencies, technological expertise, or raw material availability.

In the short to medium term, widespread tariffs will lead to higher prices and limited availability for certain products, as local producers would need time and investment to scale up or shift production.

The effectiveness of domestic substitutes would also depend on the ability of local industries to meet demand at a competitive quality and price.

Hence, if Trump doesn't FIRST fix the local manufacturing base, something that is deeply ideologically opposed by the Republican Party, champions of deregulation and "let the free market decide" in the short and medium term Americans will be forced to pay more for all the products they need either because all or part of them is produced overseas.

This is what you backed and what the people chose...

Only guessing but I suspect Trump is well aware there is going to be a gap in the timeline of increasing USA production enough to cover as many products as he would like and demand.

I suspect he hopes China will initially respond by having to lower prices into USA to cover. He is targeting them specifically more than any competitors. I suspect he hopes to achieve a 2 pronged attack on the China trade imbalance by reducing that imbalance and empowering to an extent, any China manufacturing competitors.

His idea of increasing USA manufacturing, is not in and of itself a bad idea. It requires a leader whom is prepared to enact long term supporting policies that may take more than one term to see the full desired gains in his specified area.
I doubt legacy media will even grasp that notion let alone promulgate it, but that is where the hysterical, radical, left misunderstand Trump. He genuinely thinks part of improving the USA economic position and citizen livelihood, includes broadening it's base to include more manufacturing.

I'm again guessing but I expect there will be an initial positive response to his policies from investment into the USA and already the markets seem to agree. That may be followed by a period of poorer performance as the "gap" between investment and actual production comes to the fore and China fight-back efforts have some effect. There followed by a period of better performance as some of the policies start to bare physical fruit.
I reckon Trump will accordingly see a 12 month honeymoon period, followed by a couple of tougher years, including an over-due market correction, before ending with a better performance towards the end of his term.
The legacy left wing media will focus on the tougher years of his term and Trump will focus on the "poo" in his opinion he was left by Biden/Hariss and the improving economic outlook towards the back end.
The media circus goes into the new election rhetoric media cycle and around we go.

That's my crystal ball guess. lol

I hope so, but Trump has historically been a lazy president. He's all about the signing ceremony and getting all the credit without actually following through, like the wall, his "fixing" the health system etc.

But I hope you're right.

Trump makes the announcement and then heads out to the golf course.

The 2025 project removes the framework that gets things done. Replacing all the civil servants with political hacks will do the type of damage that takes decades to recover from.

The only bright light is that the departments will likely not be functional enough to enact Trump's policies.

funniest crap ever written Grin

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Karnal

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #70 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 11:36pm

Frank wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 8:03pm:

Karnal wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 6:25pm:

goosecat wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 5:22pm:

It will be a combination as always.
Some importers will try to pass the full cost on and for some items that will work. For others the public wont buy as much at the price etc. Some importers will "wear" some of the cost. Some will source elsewhere. Some will demand China suppliers/exporters lower cost to the US importers to cover and some will be combinations of all etc.
An element of China to USA products will initially have to lower prices to USA importers to move existing stock and pipeline. Exactly how much and how many products, I suspect no-one actually knows, including "economists".
It will of course have flow on effects for China production pipelines, (businesses, workers, financial institutions) and economy.

I see. You're onto the importers. Now you're talking.

Oh, economists know alright. They're saying it'll add to inflation. A 20% tax doesn't just disappear, Goose. You don't get to "demand" your way out of it.

When Australia enforced GST on foreign platforms like eBay and Amazon, prices automatically went up by 10%, just like that.

No bargaining, no price reductions, no demands on suppliers.

Tariffs are effectively a consumption tax.

So consume the local alternative.

Buy your kids a job - remember that one?

So why is your DL ordering his caps from Chi-na?

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Karnal

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #71 - Nov 10^th, 2024 at 11:41pm

aquascoot wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 9:20pm:

Dnarever wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 9:10pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 8:31pm:

goosecat wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 2:56pm:

SadKangaroo wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 1:19pm:

If Trump were to implement tariffs on all imports, it would increase the cost of imported goods, which could encourage people to buy domestically produced alternatives. However, whether there are viable local alternatives depends on the product and industry.

For some goods, especially agricultural products and basic manufactured items, local alternatives might be available or could be ramped up relatively quickly.

However, for more complex items like electronics, machinery, or specialized components, it would be challenging to find or establish equivalent local production in the short term. The U.S. has a significant manufacturing base, but certain industries rely heavily on global supply chains due to cost efficiencies, technological expertise, or raw material availability.

In the short to medium term, widespread tariffs will lead to higher prices and limited availability for certain products, as local producers would need time and investment to scale up or shift production.

The effectiveness of domestic substitutes would also depend on the ability of local industries to meet demand at a competitive quality and price.

Hence, if Trump doesn't FIRST fix the local manufacturing base, something that is deeply ideologically opposed by the Republican Party, champions of deregulation and "let the free market decide" in the short and medium term Americans will be forced to pay more for all the products they need either because all or part of them is produced overseas.

This is what you backed and what the people chose...

Only guessing but I suspect Trump is well aware there is going to be a gap in the timeline of increasing USA production enough to cover as many products as he would like and demand.

I suspect he hopes China will initially respond by having to lower prices into USA to cover. He is targeting them specifically more than any competitors. I suspect he hopes to achieve a 2 pronged attack on the China trade imbalance by reducing that imbalance and empowering to an extent, any China manufacturing competitors.

His idea of increasing USA manufacturing, is not in and of itself a bad idea. It requires a leader whom is prepared to enact long term supporting policies that may take more than one term to see the full desired gains in his specified area.
I doubt legacy media will even grasp that notion let alone promulgate it, but that is where the hysterical, radical, left misunderstand Trump. He genuinely thinks part of improving the USA economic position and citizen livelihood, includes broadening it's base to include more manufacturing.

I'm again guessing but I expect there will be an initial positive response to his policies from investment into the USA and already the markets seem to agree. That may be followed by a period of poorer performance as the "gap" between investment and actual production comes to the fore and China fight-back efforts have some effect. There followed by a period of better performance as some of the policies start to bare physical fruit.
I reckon Trump will accordingly see a 12 month honeymoon period, followed by a couple of tougher years, including an over-due market correction, before ending with a better performance towards the end of his term.
The legacy left wing media will focus on the tougher years of his term and Trump will focus on the "poo" in his opinion he was left by Biden/Hariss and the improving economic outlook towards the back end.
The media circus goes into the new election rhetoric media cycle and around we go.

That's my crystal ball guess. lol

I hope so, but Trump has historically been a lazy president. He's all about the signing ceremony and getting all the credit without actually following through, like the wall, his "fixing" the health system etc.

But I hope you're right.

Trump makes the announcement and then heads out to the golf course.

The 2025 project removes the framework that gets things done. Replacing all the civil servants with political hacks will do the type of damage that takes decades to recover from.

The only bright light is that the departments will likely not be functional enough to enact Trump's policies.

funniest crap ever written Grin

I know, right? It's not like we need food and drug standards, airline safety or nuclear energy regulation.

Put a couple of Jan 6 protesters in. They'll have the swamp fixed in no time.

Should help with their rehabilitation too, no?

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aquascoot

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #72 - Nov 11^th, 2024 at 5:04am

everyone is "over thinking" this tarriff stuff

ita all about the vibe

telling people that china is going to find it tougher to sell into the USA will encourage millions of americans who were wamking in their mummys basements to
"have a crack" at starting a business

and some will succeed

you get to be negative and a pessimist or you get to be rich

you dont get both

the figures and details mean nothing
and trump knows it
the market is moved by pyschology, not mathematics

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John Smith

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #73 - Nov 11^th, 2024 at 7:08am

Frank wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 10:29am:

How did Britain resist Germany?

With the help of Europe, Australia, USA, Russia and a hundred other countries

The real world is not like an episode of 'Thomas the Tank' you know ... thinking you can does not automatically mean you can. At some point reality has to come into play

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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.

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Frank

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Re: Trumps Summarised USA Economic Foundational Basis.
Reply #74 - Nov 11^th, 2024 at 9:28am

John Smith wrote on Nov 11^th, 2024 at 7:08am:

Frank wrote on Nov 10^th, 2024 at 10:29am:

How did Britain resist Germany?

With the help of Europe, Australia, USA, Russia and a hundred other countries

The real world is not like an episode of 'Thomas the Tank' you know ... thinking you can does not automatically mean you can. At some point reality has to come into play

Battle of Britain - 1940
US enters war - 1941
Soviet Union enters the war - 1941

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Estragon: I can’t go on like this.
Vladimir: That’s what you think.

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