philperth2010 wrote on Dec 9
th, 2024 at 4:54pm:
Nuclear will provide 4% of Australia's energy needs..
From your reference -
So it was Bowen's claim. Not from any engineer or anything. Talk about grasping at straws.
From AEMO - "Over the 20-year forecast horizon, annual operational electricity consumption in the NEM is forecast to remain relatively flat, growing less than 6% over the forecast period (180,750 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2016–17 to 191,049 GWh in 2036–37 in the Neutral scenario). "
https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/n...SO 191049/8760 =21.8GW. To 2036-37
Back to the Guardian -"Solar and wind farms will need to rise six-fold by 2050 to reach 58GW and 69GW, respectively. Rooftop solar should roughly quadruple to 72GW by then, the report said."
So 200GW or 9 times overbuild to get us there.
Meanwhile AEMO expects usage to climb only 6% in 24 years. But we are all suoosed to be driving EV's by then. So a massive increase in EV's and only a piddling rise in consumption. Something does not add up.
"The 25-year plan did not model nuclear energy because the technology isn’t policy for any federal or state government and is banned. Aemo said nuclear was “one of the most expensive ways to generate electricity”, citing a CSIRO report."
Well there goes any cost estimate.
"“[The] time it would take to design and build nuclear generation would be too slow to replace retiring coal-fired generation,” Aemo noted in an accompanying factsheet."
That is ONLY IF the coal plant are retired. They are running no need to stop them.
"Bowen claimed the Coalition policy would “see Australians pay hundreds of billions for the reactors alone”, which he said could provide “at best” 4% of Australia’s energy needs by 2050. It might add $1,000 a year to people’s energy bills, he said."
Meanwhile the ABC estimate is 8.5Billion each and apparently we require seven. Of course he didn't say what the cost of the subsidies for renewables would cost in that time frame.
"Renewable energy supplied almost 40% of electricity across the national electricity market (Nem) in 2023, and briefly topped 72% last October. The government is aiming for 82% of the Nem to be supplied by clean energy by 2030."
Spot the difference? In one they use a year's supply, in the other they use the best month for wind and solar.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/maps/averages/wind-velocity/?period=oct&maptype=10...https://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analysesChart 5
More - "The market will also need 15GW of gas-fired generation by 2050, up from 11.5GW now, even if rarely used."
So on top of the necessary 200GW renewables we will still need another 3.5GW of gas.
Dreams writ large.
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