Australian Politics Forum - Australia on verge of recession

Bobby.

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #15 - Dec 13^th, 2024 at 10:42pm

Grappler Truth Teller Feller wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 10:39pm:

Soon, very soon, we will be living in the same Shythole cities as India ... do not worry! Soon Hong Strathfield will create need for aircraft to arrive over high rise..... Wink

This is what Albo caused with his uncontrolled mass immigration -
Albo has brought Calcutta to Australia:

https://www.noticer.news/international-students-hot-bedding-10-per-room/

International students in Australia are ‘hot bedding’ in squalid apartments
where 10 people share a bedroom.

Rental costs have hit record highs across Australia – in Sydney, for example, tiny two-bedroom apartments can fetch weekly rents well beyond $700.

The housing crisis is forcing some people into an impossible choice: homelessness or sharing not just an apartment but a bedroom with strangers.

“Hot bedding” – sharing the same beds in overcrowded rooms – has become a common reality for some tenants.

For marginalised populations, these housing arrangements become a survival strategy.

People living in severe overcrowding are considered to be a homeless group in Australia.

But what happens when shared housing, marketed as an affordable solution, fails to meet tenants’ basic needs and creates serious health and safety risks?

Ever heard of hot-bedding?
Well over 20,000 international students are doing it in Australia.

Hot-bedding is exactly what it sounds like; students share beds available to them for only some hours of the day or night so others can use them the rest of the time.

A recent survey of more than 7,000 international students renting privately in Sydney and Melbourne, was recently undertaken by researchers from @UTSengage + @SydneyUni_Media. If this sample is representative of the 758,154 international students in Australia in December 2019, about 22,750 students are hot-bedding.

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Bobby.

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #16 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 11:20am

Life under the rule of Albo:

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/12/australias-homelessness-crisis-outpaces...

Australia’s Homelessness Crisis Outpaces California by 12-to-1:
10,000 Australians Become Homeless Each Month
Amid Housing Shortages and Rising Immigration

by Guest Contributor Dec. 12, 2024

Australia’s national peak body and advocate for homelessness released a scathing report this week on the dire state of housing and the number of people becoming homeless each month.

The extraordinary figure of 10,000 people per month becoming homeless was reported.

To put that in context, I researched the homeless figures in California. Being an Australian, it was my immediate connection as their problems have been pretty much highlighted here.

The article, “California’s homeless population rose 5.8% in 2023, while U.S. rate surged 12%,“ states that between 2022 and 2023, an estimated increase of 10,000 people became homeless over a 1-year period.

One would think this would make national headlines in Australia when you consider that, as a country of just over 27 million, we are outpacing California in poverty by a 12 to 1 ratio, but it is “cricket” season down here right now.

My grandfather was a Federal Member of the Australian Labor Party who was expelled; he then formed the Democratic Labour Party (an anti-communist party). I have taken the time to write letters to my local council, state government, and federal government, to no avail.

You will find numerous articles online regarding the rental shortage, like 100 people applying for the same property, but for some reason, the Australian Labor Party (ALP), which won the 2022 election, keeps increasing the immigration numbers. It is impossible to find an exact number, but estimates are between 1.2 and 1.7 million in that short time.

The ALP was also elected due to a promise to fix the housing supply crisis. Online, you will find over 200,000 properties for sale Australia-wide, but they are so expensive that most people cannot afford them, hence 10,000 more homeless per month. Property prices are starting to drop and have even affected the Prime Minister Albanese.

Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, snagged a seaside mansion for $300,000 less than what the owners paid for it in 2021.

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UnSubRocky

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #17 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 11:39am

Bobby. wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 4:45pm:

Yes - his VOICE nonsense cost us about $400 million - Albo keeps wasting money. Roll Eyes

I do not see it as that way. The Voice to Parliament referendum put forward the idea that we should discuss ending the special treatment that indigenous Australians receive. I have no problem with extra funding in medical treatment for indigenous Australians. I don't even mind the extra help indigenous people get with job searches. But, I draw the line with the idea that indigenous people don't have mutual obligations to fulfill, or getting more welfare, or having granted low-interest rates on loans. There is also an issue about needing to start holding indigenous Australians responsible for their criminal activity.

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UnSubRocky

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #18 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 11:41am

Daves2017 wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 8:55pm:

Albo voice nonsense real cost was a waste of a year in government.

Something labor will deeply regret.

Albo went quiet after the referendum was defeated. I was surprised that the vote was only 61 to 39 against. Perhaps it is because a lot of city slickers have no real concept of what indigenous people go through or why they are not respected in greater percentages.

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UnSubRocky

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #19 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 11:43am

Brian Ross wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 9:33pm:

Oh, dearie, dearie, me, you're such a Troll, Bobby. Tsk, tsk, tsk... Roll Eyes

What do you care? You have retired from life and are waiting to die. I have to work the next 30 to 35 years before I decide that I can retire. I doubt that I will live long enough to be retired for long.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #20 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 12:59pm

Bobby. wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 9:50am:

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/mark-bouris-warns-austral...

Mark Bouris warns Australia now on the ‘verge of a full-blown recession’

One of Australia’s top finance experts has issued a grim warning about the economy -
and shared a telling clue about what’s to come.

Mark Bouris
3 min read
December 11, 2024

[url]https://m3.gab.com/preview_cards/images/051/560/472/original/05d423b8
126b08be.jpeg[/url]
Mark Bouris

But now, the negative impacts of high interest rates outweigh the benefits.
High interest rates have slowed the economy to the point whereby we’re on the verge of a full-blown recession.
High interest rates are killing household budgets because the cost of servicing mortgages has skyrocketed.
As a result, households are spending less money at the shops.
That means businesses are seeing their sales tank at the same time as their costs rise.
If the situation gets any worse for businesses, bosses will have to cut their costs.
That means they’ll have to let go some of their workers, which will drive unemployment and see people forced onto the dole.
This is a recipe for disaster, and the Reserve Bank can’t let it happen as a result of its one-dimensional anti-inflation crusade.

By the way, the situation out there is worse than the economic figures out from the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics suggest. Because the economy is being propped up by government policies.
First of all, record-high immigration is artificially inflating economic growth.
That’s hiding the full extent of the pain households and businesses are feeling at the moment.
The same goes for public sector spending.
The majority of new jobs being created at the moment are in the public sector.
The taxpayer is paying for all of that.

Meanwhile, the private sector is struggling.
Business investment is down.
New private sector jobs aren’t being created.
But the boom in the public sector is hiding this.
It’s making things look better than they really are in the economic data published by the ABS.
The RBA must take this into account, just as it has to take into account the supply side of the economy.
You may be led to mistakenly believe that the only way to kill inflation is to hike interest rates.
But that’s not true.

So far so good, except both public sector and private sector jobs are necessary for a well-functioning economy, because the latter create winners and losers in competitive free markets

"Markets are good servants, but a bad master, and a worse religion". Amory Lovins.

Quote:

One of the core drivers of inflation at the moment is electricity bills.
But high interest rates won’t bring down power prices.
The only thing that will bring down power prices is building more baseload power stations and increasing domestic gas supply.

Yet renewables plus storage is said to be the cheapest form of new energy. In any case, the transition will require government subsidies for lower income groups, to avoid more people plunging into poverty.

Quote:

The same goes for grocery prices.
One of the reasons grocery prices are so high is because the supermarket system in Australia is a duopoly.
Woolworths and Coles control most of the market.
That means they can charge high prices without losing customers to competition offering lower prices.
Again, interest rates won’t do anything to boost competition in the supermarket sector.
That’s a job for the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

OK...but I own Woolies shares because I hope they can pay a better dividend than the competition - silly of me, greed-based capitalism is full of contradictions.

Quote:

Let's hope the Reserve Bank follows in February.
Because if they don’t, we’ll trade high inflation for a recession.

Hey, that'll mean I earn less on my bank savings....ouch.

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« Last Edit: Dec 14^th, 2024 at 2:19pm by thegreatdivide »

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freediver

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #21 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 1:05pm

Bobby. wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 10:24pm:

Hi FD,
they order the money to be printed:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-25/did-the-reserve-banks-money-printing-caus...

Did the Reserve Bank's money printing cause inflation? The bank says it's complicated

By business reporter Gareth Hutchens
Topic:Economy

Sunday 25 September 2022

Do you remember how the Reserve Bank printed a huge amount of money in the pandemic?

Have you been wondering if it's responsible for the inflation we're seeing?

The RBA says it's a complicated question to answer, and it's trying to encourage people to think more deeply about money itself.

Here's what that means.

The bond-buying program
In late 2020, the RBA began buying hundreds of billions of dollars worth of government bonds.

It was an emergency stimulus measure.

The program ran from November 2020 to February 2022, and saw the RBA buy $281 billion of federal, state and territory government bonds.

Last week, the RBA published a review of the program which found it broadly helped to support economic activity during the crisis.

However, there were a few passages near the bottom of the review that were very interesting.

They had to do with money printing.

RBA official says outlook for global economy is worrying

RBA deputy governor Michelle Bullock warns of risks in the global economy, but says the RBA's ability to create money helped Australia's economy through the pandemic

See, the RBA's bond buying was an exercise of "money printing"
because the bank was creating money to buy the bonds.

To be more precise, it was waiting for Treasury to sell the government bonds to authorised investors (ie institutional banks), then it would buy the bonds from those banks.

And when it bought the bonds, it would pay for them by simply electronically crediting the accounts that those banks had at the RBA.

For example, let's say the RBA bought $100 million worth of bonds from a particular bank.

It would say to that bank, 'Here you go, we've gone to the computer and added an extra $100 million to your exchange settlement account. Thanks for the bonds."

Did you read the article Bobby?

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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #22 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 2:30pm

freediver wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 1:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 10:24pm:

Hi FD,
they order the money to be printed:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-25/did-the-reserve-banks-money-printing-caus...

Did the Reserve Bank's money printing cause inflation? The bank says it's complicated

By business reporter Gareth Hutchens
Topic:Economy

Sunday 25 September 2022

Do you remember how the Reserve Bank printed a huge amount of money in the pandemic?

Have you been wondering if it's responsible for the inflation we're seeing?

The RBA says it's a complicated question to answer, and it's trying to encourage people to think more deeply about money itself.

Here's what that means.

The bond-buying program
In late 2020, the RBA began buying hundreds of billions of dollars worth of government bonds.

It was an emergency stimulus measure.

The program ran from November 2020 to February 2022, and saw the RBA buy $281 billion of federal, state and territory government bonds.

Last week, the RBA published a review of the program which found it broadly helped to support economic activity during the crisis.

However, there were a few passages near the bottom of the review that were very interesting.

They had to do with money printing.

RBA official says outlook for global economy is worrying

RBA deputy governor Michelle Bullock warns of risks in the global economy, but says the RBA's ability to create money helped Australia's economy through the pandemic

See, the RBA's bond buying was an exercise of "money printing"
because the bank was creating money to buy the bonds.

To be more precise, it was waiting for Treasury to sell the government bonds to authorised investors (ie institutional banks), then it would buy the bonds from those banks.

And when it bought the bonds, it would pay for them by simply electronically crediting the accounts that those banks had at the RBA.

For example, let's say the RBA bought $100 million worth of bonds from a particular bank.

It would say to that bank, 'Here you go, we've gone to the computer and added an extra $100 million to your exchange settlement account. Thanks for the bonds."

Did you read the article Bobby?

"It's complicated"....but to make it simple for you both, the RBA doesn't NEED to buy or sell bonds on behalf of Treasury; government bonds to fund currency-issuing government is only an outdated convention benefitting userers.

The proper task for a national Treasury is to ensure supply of goods and services can meet demand, or that demand doesn't exceed supply.

The "independent Reverse Bank" operating to NAIRU dogma is an obsolesence ...

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Bobby.

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #23 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 2:32pm

freediver wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 1:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 10:24pm:

Hi FD,
they order the money to be printed:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-25/did-the-reserve-banks-money-printing-caus...

Did the Reserve Bank's money printing cause inflation? The bank says it's complicated

By business reporter Gareth Hutchens
Topic:Economy

Sunday 25 September 2022

Do you remember how the Reserve Bank printed a huge amount of money in the pandemic?

Have you been wondering if it's responsible for the inflation we're seeing?

The RBA says it's a complicated question to answer, and it's trying to encourage people to think more deeply about money itself.

Here's what that means.

The bond-buying program
In late 2020, the RBA began buying hundreds of billions of dollars worth of government bonds.

It was an emergency stimulus measure.

The program ran from November 2020 to February 2022, and saw the RBA buy $281 billion of federal, state and territory government bonds.

Last week, the RBA published a review of the program which found it broadly helped to support economic activity during the crisis.

However, there were a few passages near the bottom of the review that were very interesting.

They had to do with money printing.

RBA official says outlook for global economy is worrying

RBA deputy governor Michelle Bullock warns of risks in the global economy, but says the RBA's ability to create money helped Australia's economy through the pandemic

See, the RBA's bond buying was an exercise of "money printing"
because the bank was creating money to buy the bonds.

To be more precise, it was waiting for Treasury to sell the government bonds to authorised investors (ie institutional banks), then it would buy the bonds from those banks.

And when it bought the bonds, it would pay for them by simply electronically crediting the accounts that those banks had at the RBA.

For example, let's say the RBA bought $100 million worth of bonds from a particular bank.

It would say to that bank, 'Here you go, we've gone to the computer and added an extra $100 million to your exchange settlement account. Thanks for the bonds."

Did you read the article Bobby?

Yes - did you?
Given your previous statement about the RBA not printing money -
you will gain considerable enlightenment.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #24 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 2:43pm

Bobby. wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 2:32pm:

freediver wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 1:05pm:

Bobby. wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 10:24pm:

Hi FD,
they order the money to be printed:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-25/did-the-reserve-banks-money-printing-caus...

Did the Reserve Bank's money printing cause inflation? The bank says it's complicated

By business reporter Gareth Hutchens
Topic:Economy

Sunday 25 September 2022

Do you remember how the Reserve Bank printed a huge amount of money in the pandemic?

Have you been wondering if it's responsible for the inflation we're seeing?

The RBA says it's a complicated question to answer, and it's trying to encourage people to think more deeply about money itself.

Here's what that means.

The bond-buying program
In late 2020, the RBA began buying hundreds of billions of dollars worth of government bonds.

It was an emergency stimulus measure.

The program ran from November 2020 to February 2022, and saw the RBA buy $281 billion of federal, state and territory government bonds.

Last week, the RBA published a review of the program which found it broadly helped to support economic activity during the crisis.

However, there were a few passages near the bottom of the review that were very interesting.

They had to do with money printing.

RBA official says outlook for global economy is worrying

RBA deputy governor Michelle Bullock warns of risks in the global economy, but says the RBA's ability to create money helped Australia's economy through the pandemic

See, the RBA's bond buying was an exercise of "money printing"
because the bank was creating money to buy the bonds.

To be more precise, it was waiting for Treasury to sell the government bonds to authorised investors (ie institutional banks), then it would buy the bonds from those banks.

And when it bought the bonds, it would pay for them by simply electronically crediting the accounts that those banks had at the RBA.

For example, let's say the RBA bought $100 million worth of bonds from a particular bank.

It would say to that bank, 'Here you go, we've gone to the computer and added an extra $100 million to your exchange settlement account. Thanks for the bonds."

Did you read the article Bobby?

Yes - did you?
Given your previous statement about the RBA not printing money -
you will gain considerable enlightenment.

The problem for both of you is the government prints money to purchase interest-bearing bonds - which it buys back from the primary dealers to whom the bonds were originally sold.

"It's complicated" ....and private money lenders - usurers - don't want you to see the ruse.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #25 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 4:07pm

More on the "complicated" government bond issuance ruse.

google

The primary dealers in the bond market are financial intermediaries that act as a channel between the debt manager (in this case, manager of government debt) and investors in the primary market. The secondary market is where investors buy and sell securities that have already been issued in the primary market.

That is, the primary dealers manage the government's bond issuance program; some government bonds are sold to private cirizens in the secondary market, while the government might want to buy back (from the primary dealers) its own bonds as a method of borrowing without having to tax, or sell bonds to private citizens, eg, in an emergency like the GFC and pandemic, to stave off economic collapse.

But it's confusing enough for bobby to think government "money printing creates inflation", when inflation is the result of supply of goods and services not keeping up with demand, or demand exceeding supply.

And as someone else mentioned, there are other ways to control inflation other than the "independent" unelected Reverse Bank manipulating interest rates.

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Bobby.

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #26 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 4:16pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 4:07pm:

More on the "complicated" government bond issuance ruse.

google

The primary dealers in the bond market are financial intermediaries that act as a channel between the debt manager (in this case, manager of government debt) and investors in the primary market. The secondary market is where investors buy and sell securities that have already been issued in the primary market.

That is, the primary dealers manage the government's bond issuance program; some government bonds are sold to private cirizens in the secondary market, while the government might want to buy back (from the primary dealers) its own bonds as a method of borrowing without having to tax, or sell bonds to private citizens, eg, in an emergency like the GFC and pandemic, to stave off economic collapse.

But it's confusing enough for bobby to think government "money printing creates inflation", when inflation is the result of supply of goods and services not keeping up with demand, or demand exceeding supply.

And as someone else mentioned, there are other ways to control inflation other than the "independent" unelected Reverse Bank manipulating interest rates.

10-year bond: The yield for an Australian 10-year government bond is 4.36%

That is much less than the inflation rate on housing.
A suburb I looked at went up 27% in one year for Units -
that was June 2022 to June 2023.

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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 49054 At my desk.	Re: Australia on verge of recession Reply #27 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 5:17pm Quote: Given your previous statement about the RBA not printing money - That's not what I said Bobby.
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Bobby.

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #28 - Dec 14^th, 2024 at 7:21pm

freediver wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 5:17pm:

Quote:

Given your previous statement about the RBA not printing money -

That's not what I said Bobby.

You said

freediver wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 10:16pm:

Bobby. wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 4:14pm:

freediver wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 2:46pm:

Quote:

High interest rates have slowed the economy to the point whereby we’re on the verge of a full-blown recession.

He's got it all backwards. Interest rates are nearly always high before a big recession, if the reserve bank is doing it's job right.

Well actually - the RBA printed all the money that caused the high inflation.

No they did not.

The inflation is caused by the heard mentality of people borrowing to invest seeing only good times ahead. The reserve bank does not cause the high inflation by printing money. It does the opposite. It effectively prints money in a recession. It increases interest rates (the opposite of printing money) when there is high inflation.

This used to be a problem before we had independent reserve banks, but since we have had them, they have always acted to reduce inflation when it is high, and make it easier to borrow to invest when there is a recession. People who say otherwise just cannot get their head around the details, or are too lazy to bother.

Look at the ASX 200 plot. One person might look at that and have a fear of missing out and want to jump on the bandwagon. I look at that and think it is time to sell.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #29 - Dec 15^th, 2024 at 4:48pm

Bobby. wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 7:21pm:

freediver wrote on Dec 14^th, 2024 at 5:17pm:

Quote:

Given your previous statement about the RBA not printing money -

That's not what I said Bobby.

You said

freediver wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 10:16pm:

Bobby. wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 4:14pm:

freediver wrote on Dec 13^th, 2024 at 2:46pm:

[quote]High interest rates have slowed the economy to the point whereby we’re on the verge of a full-blown recession.

He's got it all backwards. Interest rates are nearly always high before a big recession, if the reserve bank is doing it's job right.

Well actually - the RBA printed all the money that caused the high inflation.

No they did not.

The inflation is caused by the heard mentality of people borrowing to invest seeing only good times ahead. The reserve bank does not cause the high inflation by printing money. It does the opposite. It effectively prints money in a recession. It increases interest rates (the opposite of printing money) when there is high inflation.

This used to be a problem before we had independent reserve banks, but since we have had them, they have always acted to reduce inflation when it is high, and make it easier to borrow to invest when there is a recession. People who say otherwise just cannot get their head around the details, or are too lazy to bother.

Look at the ASX 200 plot. One person might look at that and have a fear of missing out and want to jump on the bandwagon. I look at that and think it is time to sell.

poor FD, making a habit of (or suffering from short term memor loss) of denying what he said a few post back...oh dear.

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