Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 
Send Topic Print
Australia on verge of recession (Read 1324 times)
thegreatdivide
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics<br
/>

Posts: 12960
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #60 - Dec 18th, 2024 at 4:32pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Dec 18th, 2024 at 2:00pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 18th, 2024 at 1:57pm:
Bobby. wrote on Dec 17th, 2024 at 8:58pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 17th, 2024 at 8:53pm:
Are you aware that you are changing the topic Bobby?



It's the same -
when the Govt creates money via the RBA -  they have to pay it back.



Who to?



To whoever buys the Govt. Bonds.  -
often the Banks -
I think they are the main customers.


News flash, the banks don't need to buy government bonds; they create money out of thin air when credit- worthy customers ask for a loan. 

So that leaves wealthy individuals and institutions who want a secure return on their investment...

Though sometimes the government wants to increase bank liquidity eg, via QE in a recession - which is like pushing on a string: if bank customers don't want to borrow even cheap money,  they won't. 

Quote:
Anything else you'd like to know?
I'm always glad to be of assistance.


{......}
Back to top
« Last Edit: Dec 18th, 2024 at 4:38pm by thegreatdivide »  
 
IP Logged
 
Bobby.
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 105182
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #61 - Dec 18th, 2024 at 4:40pm
 

Anything else you'd like to know?

I'm always glad to be of assistance.

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Daves2017
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics

Posts: 1026
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #62 - Dec 18th, 2024 at 9:00pm
 
I’d like the winning lotto numbers please!
Back to top
« Last Edit: Dec 18th, 2024 at 9:05pm by Daves2017 »  

Thomas A. Edison said as early as in 1931, “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
 
IP Logged
 
Bobby.
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 105182
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #63 - Dec 18th, 2024 at 10:40pm
 
Daves2017 wrote on Dec 18th, 2024 at 9:00pm:
I’d like the winning lotto numbers please!


LOL,
I heard on ABC news radio today -
we have been in a per capita recession for the last  4 years.
The Govts only avoided an actual recession from mass immigration
and large Govt spending based on borrowed money.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Bobby.
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 105182
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #64 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 8:50am
 
We're doomed:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-19/asx-markets-business-live-news/104744692

Markets live: Australian dollar sinks to 24-month low,
US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, ASX to fall


by business reporter David Chau
Topic:Financial Markets

2 hours ago

The Australian dollar has fallen below 62.4 US cents
,
its weakest level since October 2022.

It comes after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, but indicated there would be fewer rate reductions next year as it forecasts inflation will stay higher for longer.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Sir lastnail
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 30089
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #65 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 8:54am
 
Aren't we going to hit a trillion dollars of debt whilst we handed out our resources to every tom dick and harry for peanuts ?? They should have slapped a super profits tax like Norway did but now they are going to make us pay for their inactions Sad
Back to top
 

In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.
 
IP Logged
 
Bobby.
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 105182
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #66 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 9:51am
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Dec 19th, 2024 at 8:54am:
Aren't we going to hit a trillion dollars of debt whilst we handed out our resources to every tom dick and harry for peanuts ?? They should have slapped a super profits tax like Norway did but now they are going to make us pay for their inactions Sad



yep - it's around $1 trillion now.

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/decade-of-deficits-to-sparke-debt-interest-su...


gross debt is forecast to leap above $1 trillion in 2025-26
before surging to $1.06 trillion in 2026-27 and
above $1.1 trillion a year later.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
thegreatdivide
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics<br
/>

Posts: 12960
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #67 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 11:38am
 
Bobby. wrote on Dec 18th, 2024 at 4:40pm:
Anything else you'd like to know?

I'm always glad to be of assistance.



I'd like to know why you haven't acknowledged the error in your assertion printing money = inflation. 


Obviously in a recession the government has to print money, or risk a full-blown depression, as happened during the GD which only ended when governments  started printing money, to win the war....

Meanwhile Biden printing money to fund the IRA etc, has been accompanied by falling inflation. 


Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
freediver
Gold Member
*****
Offline


www.ozpolitic.com

Posts: 49062
At my desk.
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #68 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 12:31pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 13th, 2024 at 10:16pm:
Bobby. wrote on Dec 13th, 2024 at 4:14pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 13th, 2024 at 2:46pm:
Quote:
High interest rates have slowed the economy to the point whereby we’re on the verge of a full-blown recession.


He's got it all backwards. Interest rates are nearly always high before a big recession, if the reserve bank is doing it's job right.



Well actually - the RBA printed all the money that caused the high inflation.  Embarrassed


No they did not.

The inflation is caused by the heard mentality of people borrowing to invest seeing only good times ahead. The reserve bank does not cause the high inflation by printing money. It does the opposite. It effectively prints money in a recession. It increases interest rates (the opposite of printing money) when there is high inflation.

This used to be a problem before we had independent reserve banks, but since we have had them, they have always acted to reduce inflation when it is high, and make it easier to borrow to invest when there is a recession. People who say otherwise just cannot get their head around the details, or are too lazy to bother.

Look at the ASX 200 plot. One person might look at that and have a fear of missing out and want to jump on the bandwagon. I look at that and think it is time to sell.


Called it.
Back to top
 

People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.
WWW  
IP Logged
 
thegreatdivide
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics<br
/>

Posts: 12960
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #69 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 1:17pm
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Dec 19th, 2024 at 8:54am:
Aren't we going to hit a trillion dollars of debt whilst we handed out our resources to every tom dick and harry for peanuts ?? They should have slapped a super profits tax like Norway did but now they are going to make us pay for their inactions Sad


Yes the fossil companies have the Oz government by the short and curlies - the losers. 

But re the government's  trillion dollar debt hit during the pandemic, to whom does that debt have to be repaid?

Don't we need an alternative arrangement regarding government debt accumulated in pandemics or recessions?

eg if another pandemic hit us next year, then Oz govt. debt would soon be $2 trillion... and the interest on the debt would be so large that taxpayers - on the hook for the  interest bill -  would be deprived of government  funds needed to fund vital government services.

By the way, re "taxpayer money":

https://billmitchell.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Season_2_9_promo.png

1st speaker: " It is the taxpayers' money that we are using".

2nd speaker: "Sorry to interrupt, but the government issues the money that taxpayers use".

There's a clue for an alternative arrangement for avoiding  issuing government debt, we already know government money printing doesn't cause inflation if certain conditions are met (in short, if supply of goods and services meets demand).

And during the pandemic, the  government should have only paid - using  free money issued by the government (see the cartoon linked above) - the essential  bills of locked down workers,  not send money to the bank accounts of  people who didn't need it (as you said), which was partly responsible for post-covid inflation (by increasing demand post lockdowns) - and also exacerbated  by supply problems relating to lingering illness  and the Russian war, Ukraine and Russia beng major global suppliers of food and fossil fuels, respectively.    



 
Back to top
« Last Edit: Dec 19th, 2024 at 1:23pm by thegreatdivide »  
 
IP Logged
 
Bobby.
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 105182
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #70 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 2:14pm
 
freediver wrote on Dec 19th, 2024 at 12:31pm:
I look at that and think it is time to sell.

Called it.



Yep - looks like a stock market crash.

ASX  down  1.86% today.

DOW down  2.58%



https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-drop-a-plunges-on-fed-s-revise...


https://edition.cnn.com/business
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
thegreatdivide
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics<br
/>

Posts: 12960
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #71 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 2:41pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Dec 19th, 2024 at 2:14pm:
freediver wrote on Dec 19th, 2024 at 12:31pm:
I look at that and think it is time to sell.

Called it.



Yep - looks like a stock market crash.

ASX  down  1.86% today.

DOW down  2.58%



https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/asx-to-drop-a-plunges-on-fed-s-revise...

https://edition.cnn.com/business


Such is the power of bond traders who demand higher interest rates when a government runs up debt which they think might be difficult for the government to pay back (eg they forced Lizz Truss out in the UK when she proposed lower taxes, without cutting spending).

Also heard on the ABC today: interests rates are rising in Brazil because the Leftwing government wants to deficit spend, to help reduce inequality (which is vicious in Brazil)  instead of reducing government debt as demanded by bond traders.

Vicious, private-sector thugs destroying democratically elected governments....

Currency-issuing governments should not be borrowing at all, they should ensure supply meets demand - a different metric.

Anyway, according to Paul Krugman (who is no MMTer):

(Raw Story)

Trump handed basic math lesson as Nobel prize winner takes apart policies

An Oz share market crash will be the least of the world's problems if your hero Trump, influenced by Musk - head  of the DOGE, has his way.....

At least Trump, back in 2016,  knew currency-issuing governments can print money without ill effect, provided supply (the nation's output)  meets demand.

 
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Bobby.
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 105182
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #72 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 2:49pm
 
Dear TGD,
do you have any links?
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Bobby.
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 105182
Melbourne
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #73 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 2:52pm
 
if Wall Street gets a cold we get the flu:


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/18/economy/dow-10-day-losing-streak/index.html

Dow plunges more than 1,100 points and marked its longest losing streak since 1974.



New York
CNN

The Dow plunged Wednesday on a disappointing outlook from the Federal Reserve. In the process, the blue-chip index extended its losing streak to 10 days — the longest such stretch since Gerald Ford was president.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day down about 1,123 points, or 2.6%, after the Fed indicated in a policy statement that it is forecasting just two interest rate cuts in 2025, not the previously projected four. The Fed now anticipates inflation will remain stubbornly above its target range for longer than it had initially expected.

The Dow has fallen for 10 days in a row, the first time it has had a losing streak that long since September 20 through October 4, 1974, when the index fell for 11 sessions in a row.

Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
thegreatdivide
Gold Member
*****
Online


Australian Politics<br
/>

Posts: 12960
Gender: male
Re: Australia on verge of recession
Reply #74 - Dec 19th, 2024 at 3:34pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Dec 19th, 2024 at 2:49pm:
Dear TGD,
do you have any links?


https://www.rawstory.com/paul-krugman-trump-2670479246/
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 
Send Topic Print