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Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!! (Read 775 times)
freediver
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #30 - Jan 17th, 2025 at 1:22pm
 
How much of Russia's trade do you think is done with gold?

Where did you get your "over 55%" of all trade in US dollars figure from?
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #31 - Jan 17th, 2025 at 1:30pm
 
The way I see it gold is tied to the US dollar, how else can you value gold when you trade it. The weight of the gold in US dollars converted to local currency.
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #32 - Jan 17th, 2025 at 1:39pm
 
Gold has become a strategic resource for the Russian state since the invasion of Ukraine. It has a bearing on Russia's revenue generation capacity and its monetary policy; it is central to Russia's international campaign for de-dollarisation; it is a major feature of Russia’s engagement in Africa and Central Asia; and it plays an important part in Russia's wartime trade relations.

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3230-1.html
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #33 - Jan 17th, 2025 at 2:13pm
 
Russia's increasing reliance on gold for its international trade has, no doubt, contributed to the world gold price increasing by 27% during 2024.

That, and China's central bank significantly increasing its gold reserves since 2019.
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #34 - Jan 18th, 2025 at 7:53am
 
In 2024 the top ten reported gold-purchasing countries gold were:

1.      Russia | 1,230.6 metric tons
2.      China | 1,210.2 metric tons
3.      Türkiye | 475.6 metric tons
4.      Poland | 295.0 metric tons
5.      India | 291.4 metric tons
6.      Kazakhstan | 132.6 metric ton
7.      Uzbekistan | 126.3 metric tons
8.      Singapore | 101.5 metric tons
9.      Qatar | 96.3 metric tons
10.      Hungary | 91.4 metric tons

Of them:

3 are major, founding member BRICS nations – Russia, China; India
2 are partner BRICS nations – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
3 are at war, preparing/ perceiving the threat of war – Russia, China, Poland
3 are experiencing significant economic uncertainty - Russia, China, Türkiye
2 are experiencing political uncertainty – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
1 is suffering hyperinflation – Türkiye
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #35 - Jan 18th, 2025 at 9:00am
 
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jan 18th, 2025 at 7:53am:
In 2024 the top ten reported gold-purchasing countries gold were:

1.      Russia | 1,230.6 metric tons
2.      China | 1,210.2 metric tons
3.      Türkiye | 475.6 metric tons
4.      Poland | 295.0 metric tons
5.      India | 291.4 metric tons
6.      Kazakhstan | 132.6 metric ton
7.      Uzbekistan | 126.3 metric tons
8.      Singapore | 101.5 metric tons
9.      Qatar | 96.3 metric tons
10.      Hungary | 91.4 metric tons

Of them:

3 are major, founding member BRICS nations – Russia, China; India
2 are partner BRICS nations – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
3 are at war, preparing/ perceiving the threat of war – Russia, China, Poland
3 are experiencing significant economic uncertainty - Russia, China, Türkiye
2 are experiencing political uncertainty – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
1 is suffering hyperinflation – Türkiye


I expect a bit of gold price manipulation in the next 36 months, what are the chances of the US pushing down the price of gold and the effect that could have.
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #36 - Jan 18th, 2025 at 9:10am
 
Leroy wrote on Jan 18th, 2025 at 9:00am:
MeisterEckhart wrote on Jan 18th, 2025 at 7:53am:
In 2024 the top ten reported gold-purchasing countries gold were:

1.      Russia | 1,230.6 metric tons
2.      China | 1,210.2 metric tons
3.      Türkiye | 475.6 metric tons
4.      Poland | 295.0 metric tons
5.      India | 291.4 metric tons
6.      Kazakhstan | 132.6 metric ton
7.      Uzbekistan | 126.3 metric tons
8.      Singapore | 101.5 metric tons
9.      Qatar | 96.3 metric tons
10.      Hungary | 91.4 metric tons

Of them:

3 are major, founding member BRICS nations – Russia, China; India
2 are partner BRICS nations – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
3 are at war, preparing/ perceiving the threat of war – Russia, China, Poland
3 are experiencing significant economic uncertainty - Russia, China, Türkiye
2 are experiencing political uncertainty – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan
1 is suffering hyperinflation – Türkiye


I expect a bit of gold price manipulation in the next 36 months, what are the chances of the US pushing down the price of gold and the effect that could have.

National central bank purchases are responsible for the significant gold price surge and a post-COVID bounce.

There's little chance that the US would drive the price down, which usually occurs when the US dollar is strong. However, the US dollar and the gold price have recently both been strong and still are.

The key driver is, as usual, FUD... and writ large.

Fear of an imminent catastrophe - war, economic collapse.
Uncertainty regarding economic and political stability.
Doubt that the current world economic structure is good for business - i.e. the drive towards de-dollarisation.
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #37 - Jan 19th, 2025 at 9:11am
 
A prediction for 2025...

The US dollar will remain strong and possibly reach DXY 115 to 120.

The Australian dollar will hold its own at 67.5 to 68.5 (DXY x USD exchange rate). A very strong USD - at over 115 - will drive the relative AUD exchange rate to below 60 US cents.

The gold price in USD will breach and sustain USD 3000 (approx AUD 5000...  3000 / 0.60).
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MeisterEckhart
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Re: Australian dollar collapses- DONT PANIC!!!
Reply #38 - Jan 19th, 2025 at 9:52am
 
While regimes like China's CCP encourage private gold buying (not least because the CCP can always confiscate it at will), many nations' central banks and governments are leery of private trading in gold for the same reasons they are about fiat.

Given this leeriness, they will not mourn the fact that the ridiculously high world price of gold is driving it out of reach for many private buyers, leaving gold to large financial institutions and governments.

One good thing about the gold price surge is that gold confiscation in Western countries is highly unlikely; its value will drive private gold holders to the gold traders' bullion desks uncoerced.
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