During 2024, 24% of the Earth’s surface had a locally record warm annual average, including 32% of land areas and 21% of ocean areas. These areas coincided with a number of major population centers. We estimate that 3.3 billion people — 40% of Earth’s population — experienced a locally record warm annual average in 2024. This includes 2/3 of the population of China, and a majority of the populations of Brazil, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Mexico, 1/3 of the United States, and much of South and Central America, and Eastern Europe.

None of the Earth’s surface had a record cold annual average in 2024.

Due to natural cooling patterns that have recently begun in the oceans, it is expected that 2025 will be moderately cooler than 2024. The most likely outcome is that 2025 ranks as roughly the 3rd warmest year since 1850, though warmer or cooler outcomes are also possible.

In addition, 2024 was notable for:

New national record high annual averages for an estimated 104 countries, including Brazil, Canada, China, Greece, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Korea

Record annual average warmth in both the land-average and ocean-average

Record warmth in most ocean basins

The end of the 2023/2024 El Niño and a likely transition to modestly cooler conditions in 2025.