aquascoot wrote on Mar 2
nd, 2025 at 8:45am:
hi meister.
an interesting fact.
the dutch, the habsburgs, the prussians, napoleonic france, the ottoman empire , the british empire all collapsed shortly after they hit one parameter.
the money they were spending on interest for foreign debt began exceeding the ammount they were spending on their military.
The USA hit this circumstance last year.
Did it? I think you are misreading the stats:
(wiki)
The total amount of U.S. Treasury securities held by foreign entities in December 2021 was $7.7 trillion, up from $7.1 trillion in December 2020.Total US federal government debt breached the $30 trillion mark for the first time in history in February 2022 Not exactly the comparison I want, but you can see US foreign debt is only around a quarter of total US debt.
and google
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that interest payments (on US debt) will total $952 billion in fiscal year 2025 and rise rapidly throughout the next decade"ie interest on
total US debt - not US debt held by foreigners (which is about a quarter of total US debt) - will match the Pentagon's budget in 2025.
Quote:How then can trump solve the financial position and the military position.
Well, he's on the right track, by pulling out all stops to attract manufacturing away from China back to the US.
In war, the ability to produce stuff is king; China is currently streets ahead.
Quote:The USA can no longer take on russia, iran, china and north korea by itself.
Trump has certainly slowed China's rise with his trade wars - before the pandeminc, China was expected to surpass the US economy by the end of the decade, but no-one expects that now, because China can't easily find alternative markets to replace the massive consumption capacity of the US economy.
But the US pivot away from the ME and Europe (and Russia which is a minnow in terms of consumption, and only has its nuclear-arsenal card left) is certainly a good move (from the US perspective): China is the real competitor which might soon rival US military power, owing to China's prowess in new tech as well as its massive productive capacity.
Quote:Trump can re establish a world that is much safer and more prosperous.
Yes, because he's a strong man backed by the Pentagon, speaks to Xi, and is prepared to negotiate to avoid war - and isn't likely to cross China's redlines to "defend" Taiwan which isn't even an independent nation (and never has been).
Quote:the alternative is "what exactly"??
An effective international rules-based system, still some time away.....
[Maybe when/if the PLA can demonstrably bring more force to the table than the Pentagon, this will be the time men decide the arms race is bs, and disputes can be settled without resort to war. I expect China, at that time, won't be interested in being a new global empire, rather playing a role in establishing a new universal prosperity, under the auspices of an effective UN
international rules based system].