Fascinating speculations:
Two days later on December 18, 2023 the lead story in the Washington Post reported:
The night before President Biden departed Washington to celebrate Thanksgiving on Nantucket, Mass., he gathered his closest aides for a meeting in the White House residence. After pardoning a pair of turkeys, an annual White House tradition, Biden delivered some stern words for the small group assembled: His poll numbers were unacceptably low and he wanted to know what his team and his campaign were doing about it. He complained that his economic message had done little to move the ball, even as the economy was growing and unemployment was falling, according to people familiar with his comments, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a private conversation.
Biden blaming staff is delusional. What’s more significant however is at least two of Biden’s ‘kitchen cabinet’ are briefing the press that the boss is sounding desperate. Why would presidential staff ever destabilise the boss and especially with only ten months to go? Around three-quarters of Biden’s top 100 staffers had previously been employed by Obama (guess who they like more?).
There is a campaign within the highest echelons of the Democratic Party to destabilise Joe Biden and force his polls down further until he is convinced to withdraw from 2024. Axelrod is playing a central role. The plotters however would not go to the acute bother of knocking out an incumbent if they didn’t have a replacement in the wings.
Betting markets say Gavin Newsom is the next Democratic cab off the rank but he was damaged by his recent debate with Governor Ron DeSantis on Fox News. More significantly Newsom is a white-male and the Democrats have dug themselves an identity quota swamp.
If Biden were to announce prior to the August convention he won’t contest 2024 because of ‘health reasons’, then on paper at least, the presumptive favourite for the nomination is the Vice President … but everyone (including surely Kamala) knows she is even more incapable. If Biden is the nominee then Harris will be his running mate … but if Biden goes, so does Kamala. They don’t appear to be friendly but they are a package deal.
So if Kamala heads for the exit it would still mean a female and an African-American were being demoted from the ticket. That is a sin in a party under the spell of Woke – a sin that could only be expiated by doubling down on woke.
While Trump is on track to win the biggest primary delegate haul in the history of contested races, the Democrats are in a diabolical mess as Team Biden digs in.
Filmmaker Joel Gilbert recently released a film Michelle Obama 2024: Her Real Life Story and Plan for Power. It is a meticulously researched, deep dive in Michelle Obama’s life. A central theme is that while Michelle has successfully cultivated a politically disinterested image … she is in fact acutely political and acutely ambitious. Most have fallen for the spin about Michelle just wanting to be a great mum and wife – Gilbert demolishes it.
Gilbert makes an interesting case that the Obamas are plotting ‘Michelle 2024’ (if he’s right I’d include Axelrod). Michelle would certainly solve the quota quagmire. If they are successful in wearing 81-year-old Joe down and he capitulates then the nomination will be decided at the August convention … which conveniently this year is in Michelle’s hometown of Chicago. If Michelle nominates no one else will bother – it’d be a coronation.
Michelle didn’t run in 2016 because it was immediately after her hubby had been President for eight years … that would have reeked of nepotism. In 2020 the Obamas and Axelrod likely calculated Trump was on track for re-election – before Covid hysteria betting markets gave Trump a 70 per cent chance of winning. They had been planning 2024 since 2016 … but Biden’s 2020 victory and intention to recontest have complicated things.
Team Obama can either continue the destabilisation until Biden relents or they can desist at some point and hope Biden somehow wins. The problem with the latter is the Democrats are petrified of a second Trump presidency because of his commitment to launch endless investigations. Obama once said of Biden, ‘You cannot underestimate his ability to f- things up.’ It’s hard to see them risk so much by betting on a mentally and physically declining Joe Biden.
Eight months till the convention.
The Hon John Ruddick MLC is a member of the New South Wales Legislative Council