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climate models are spot on (Read 3474 times)
lee
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #15 - Apr 30th, 2021 at 6:42pm
 
freediver wrote on Apr 30th, 2021 at 6:24pm:
That's why, contrary to the constant stream of crap coming out of Lee, the changes to the measured temperature data match so closely the changes that were predicted base on GHG emissions.



Oh dear. freediver backtracks - gone from "spot on" to closely match.

And according to the spiel that goes with your models "spot on" is this -

"The team compared 17 increasingly sophisticated model projections of global average temperature developed between 1970 and 2007, including some originally developed by NASA, with actual changes in global temperature observed through the end of 2017. The observational temperature data came from multiple sources, including NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP) time series, an estimate of global surface temperature change.

The results: 10 of the model projections closely matched observations. Moreover, after accounting for differences between modeled and actual changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other factors that drive climate, the number increased to 14. "


https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-fut...

So only the closest 14 out of 120 models are used in the ensemble.. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

And when we apply the right algorithms just so, and fudge the data... we get the right answer. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


From the paper -

"The average of the median skill scores across all the model projections evaluated is 0.69 for the temperature vs time metric"

https://sci-hub.st/https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085378

Wow that close 0.69 skill score out of 1. I am stunned. NOT. Grin Grin Grin Grin
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« Last Edit: Apr 30th, 2021 at 6:50pm by lee »  
 
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Ajax
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #16 - May 1st, 2021 at 10:26am
 
Based on the fact that these climate models cannot tell us what is down the track in five years time it would be stupid for policy makers to spend trillions of dollars trying to mitigate AGW according to these climate models.

Absolute stupidity for the stupid.

For model information look here...!

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1619599142

...
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Frank
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #17 - May 1st, 2021 at 11:14am
 
freediver wrote on Apr 30th, 2021 at 6:24pm:
Frank wrote on Apr 28th, 2021 at 9:55pm:
freediver wrote on Apr 28th, 2021 at 6:50pm:
The point of climate modelling in the context of GHG emissions is to predict the impact on global temperature. Contrary to the crap that Lee has been furiously spewing, they have been remarkably accurate.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-fut
ure-warming-projections-right/

[url]https://climate.nasa.gov/system/internal_resources/details/original/2
299_Updated_CMIP3_Model_Comparisons_Hindcast_Forecast_20210122.JPG[/url]

Why does this look so different from the crap that Lee has been posting? Two reasons:

1) Lee's crap tends to leave out a lot of the temperature data. A recent example left out temperature data after 2013.

2) Lee's crap leaves out the global temperature, for example only giving the sea surface temperature in certain parts of the ocean. This would be entirely relevant if the argument over GHG emissions was based only on the sea surface temperature in certain parts of the ocean, but in the context of GHG emissions it is a classic case of cherry picking in order to promote a lie.

One degree in 50 years.

Cause?


(Careful - nobody knows, everyone is guessing. The more politically motivated the guess, the more likely it is BS).



The cause is GHG emissions. That's why, contrary to the constant stream of crap coming out of Lee, the changes to the measured temperature data match so closely the changes that were predicted base on GHG emissions.



That's a very confident answer despite the cautionary principle. 

I do not think the natural contributions to climate are fully understood or fully measured (how many under-sea volcanic erruptions occur in a year?). The Sun's impact is not fully modelled and measured for long enough to be confidently ruled out as significant. So there is no full comprehension to justify the confidence. But even if there was, we do not gave a clear and onest cost-benefit analysis of a slight increase in average surface temperatures (no apocalyptic Hollywood movie references, please.)


In the feverishly politicised world today - about climate and everything else - the mild conservatives and the sceptics are the radicals causing outrage. Climate fever seems to me like a strong political convictions, strongly held.  I prefer the AJ Taylor way: extreme views weakly held. Wink



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lee
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #18 - May 1st, 2021 at 2:53pm
 
"Eruptions from deep-sea volcanoes were long-thought to be relatively uninteresting compared with those on land. While terrestrial volcanoes often produce spectacular eruptions, dispersing volcanic ash into the environment, it was thought that deep marine eruptions only produced slow moving lava flows.

But data gathered by remotely operated vehicles deep in the North East Pacific and analysed by scientists at the University of Leeds, has revealed a link between the way ash is dispersed during submarine eruptions and the creation of large and powerful columns of heated water rising from the ocean floor, known as megaplumes.

These megaplumes contain hot chemical-rich water and act in the same way as the atmospheric plumes seen from land-based volcanoes, spreading first upwards and then outwards, carrying volcanic ash with them. The size of megaplumes is immense, with the volumes of water equivalent to forty million Olympic-sized swimming pools. They have been detected above various submarine volcanoes but their origin has remained unknown. The results of this new research show that they form rapidly during the eruption of lava.

The research was carried out by Sam Pegler, from the School of Mathematics and David Ferguson, from the School of Earth and Environment and is being published today in the journal Nature Communications.

Together they developed a mathematical model which shows how ash from these submarine eruptions spreads several kilometres from the volcano. They used the ash pattern deposited by a historic submarine eruption to reconstruct its dynamics. This showed that the rate of energy released and required to carry ash to the observed distances is extremely high – equivalent to the power used by the whole of the USA.

David Ferguson said: “The majority of Earth’s volcanic activity occurs underwater, mostly at depths of several kilometres in the deep ocean but, in contrast to terrestrial volcanoes, even detecting that an eruption has occurred on the seafloor is extremely challenging. Consequently, there remains much for scientists to learn about submarine volcanism and its effects on the marine environment.”

The research shows that submarine eruptions cause megaplumes to form but the release of energy is so rapid that it cannot be supplied from the erupted molten lava alone. Instead, the research concludes that submarine volcanic eruptions lead to the rapid emptying of reservoirs of hot fluids within the earth’s crust. As the magma forces its way upwards towards the seafloor, it drives this hot fluid with it.

Sam Pegler added: “Our work provides evidence that megaplumes are directly linked to the eruption of lava and are responsible for transporting volcanic ash in the deep ocean. It also shows that plumes must have formed in a matter of hours, creating an immense rate of energy release.

David Ferguson adds: “Observing a submarine eruption in person remains extremely difficult but the development of instruments based on the seafloor means data can be streamed live as the activity occurs.

Efforts like these, in concert with continued mapping and sampling of the ocean floor means the volcanic character of our oceans is slowly being revealed.” "

"Rapid heat discharge during deep-sea eruptions generates megaplumes and disperses tephra"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22439-y
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Ajax
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #19 - May 2nd, 2021 at 11:35am
 
freediver wrote on Apr 28th, 2021 at 7:23pm:
I have no idea what that is even a plot of. I doubt you do either. And why does it have a watermark from photobucket on it?


Well then you have two choices.

1. Learn about it, might take some effort on your part

2. Be an ignorant cockatoo regurgitating bits and pieces of information you do not fully understand.
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #20 - May 4th, 2021 at 6:32pm
 
Ajax wrote on May 2nd, 2021 at 11:35am:
freediver wrote on Apr 28th, 2021 at 7:23pm:
I have no idea what that is even a plot of. I doubt you do either. And why does it have a watermark from photobucket on it?


Well then you have two choices.

1. Learn about it, might take some effort on your part

2. Be an ignorant cockatoo regurgitating bits and pieces of information you do not fully understand.


You want me to learn about every turd that Lee drops on this forum?

He's got diarrhea.
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #21 - May 4th, 2021 at 6:39pm
 
freediver wrote on May 4th, 2021 at 6:32pm:
You want me to learn about every turd that Lee drops on this forum?



Learn from someone else then..... BUT learn. Roll Eyes
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Frank
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #22 - May 4th, 2021 at 10:21pm
 
lee wrote on May 1st, 2021 at 2:53pm:
"Eruptions from deep-sea volcanoes were long-thought to be relatively uninteresting compared with those on land. While terrestrial volcanoes often produce spectacular eruptions, dispersing volcanic ash into the environment, it was thought that deep marine eruptions only produced slow moving lava flows.

But data gathered by remotely operated vehicles deep in the North East Pacific and analysed by scientists at the University of Leeds, has revealed a link between the way ash is dispersed during submarine eruptions and the creation of large and powerful columns of heated water rising from the ocean floor, known as megaplumes.

These megaplumes contain hot chemical-rich water and act in the same way as the atmospheric plumes seen from land-based volcanoes, spreading first upwards and then outwards, carrying volcanic ash with them. The size of megaplumes is immense, with the volumes of water equivalent to forty million Olympic-sized swimming pools. They have been detected above various submarine volcanoes but their origin has remained unknown. The results of this new research show that they form rapidly during the eruption of lava.

The research was carried out by Sam Pegler, from the School of Mathematics and David Ferguson, from the School of Earth and Environment and is being published today in the journal Nature Communications.

Together they developed a mathematical model which shows how ash from these submarine eruptions spreads several kilometres from the volcano. They used the ash pattern deposited by a historic submarine eruption to reconstruct its dynamics. This showed that the rate of energy released and required to carry ash to the observed distances is extremely high – equivalent to the power used by the whole of the USA.

David Ferguson said: “The majority of Earth’s volcanic activity occurs underwater, mostly at depths of several kilometres in the deep ocean but, in contrast to terrestrial volcanoes, even detecting that an eruption has occurred on the seafloor is extremely challenging. Consequently, there remains much for scientists to learn about submarine volcanism and its effects on the marine environment.”

The research shows that submarine eruptions cause megaplumes to form but the release of energy is so rapid that it cannot be supplied from the erupted molten lava alone. Instead, the research concludes that submarine volcanic eruptions lead to the rapid emptying of reservoirs of hot fluids within the earth’s crust. As the magma forces its way upwards towards the seafloor, it drives this hot fluid with it.

Sam Pegler added: “Our work provides evidence that megaplumes are directly linked to the eruption of lava and are responsible for transporting volcanic ash in the deep ocean. It also shows that plumes must have formed in a matter of hours, creating an immense rate of energy release.

David Ferguson adds: “Observing a submarine eruption in person remains extremely difficult but the development of instruments based on the seafloor means data can be streamed live as the activity occurs.

Efforts like these, in concert with continued mapping and sampling of the ocean floor means the volcanic character of our oceans is slowly being revealed.” "

"Rapid heat discharge during deep-sea eruptions generates megaplumes and disperses tephra"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22439-y



There's  a known unknown that the doom goblins dont want to talk about - they cant model it so they ignore it.


Cuppa?
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #23 - May 7th, 2021 at 6:15pm
 
lee wrote on May 4th, 2021 at 6:39pm:
freediver wrote on May 4th, 2021 at 6:32pm:
You want me to learn about every turd that Lee drops on this forum?



Learn from someone else then..... BUT learn. Roll Eyes


I have learnt that you are full of crap, and you seem to think it is everyone else's job to carefully sort your turds for you. For example, you posted pretty much the identical idiotic lie about climate models in about a dozen different guises. No discussion from you. No thought from you. No signs of intelligence. You lie. Someone points the lie out to you. You google another version of the same lie. Rinse and repeat. It really is about as dumb as it gets. Now Ajax thinks I am the one that needs to learn.
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #24 - May 7th, 2021 at 6:26pm
 
freediver wrote on May 7th, 2021 at 6:15pm:
Now Ajax thinks I am the one that needs to learn.



Smart man Ajax. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #25 - May 9th, 2021 at 8:46am
 
You are full of crap Lee.

Can you pick out one of the many posts you have made claiming climate models are wrong that isn't a waste of everyone's time here?
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #26 - May 9th, 2021 at 9:57am
 
freediver wrote on May 9th, 2021 at 8:46am:
You are full of crap Lee.

Can you pick out one of the many posts you have made claiming climate models are wrong that isn't a waste of everyone's time here?


The models are wrong FD observations (empirical data) of nature has proven them wrong over many decades now, enough time for climate observations (30 year period).

...

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/07/warming-in-the-tropics-even-the-new-rss-sate...

...

...
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #27 - May 9th, 2021 at 10:03am
 
Oh look, Ajax is full of crap to. Were you feeling left out?
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #28 - May 9th, 2021 at 10:25am
 
freediver wrote on May 9th, 2021 at 10:03am:
Oh look, Ajax is full of crap to. Were you feeling left out?


Study the graphs and learn something.

I suppose you go around saying there was no LIA or MWP..... Roll Eyes Cheesy Grin Smiley Wink
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Re: climate models are spot on
Reply #29 - May 11th, 2021 at 5:49pm
 
Sure, let's take the first one you posted. I see several obvious things on it that would trip the bullshit detector of anyone with half a brain. Plus several more subtle ones. I have already pointed out most of them in this thread already.

Can you figure any of them out for yourself, or are you, like Lee, dedicated to being full of crap?
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